What Is a Confidence Score?
Every trading signal generated by Telos includes a confidence score — a percentage between 0% and 100% that represents the AI system's certainty in the trade direction. A score of 83% means that the system's internal models assign an 83% probability that the predicted move is correct.
How Confidence Is Calculated
The confidence score is a weighted aggregate of each department's individual assessment. Learn more about the 6 AI departments and how they work together:
- Individual department confidence: Each of the 6 departments calculates its own confidence based on its analytical framework
- Quorum agreement: More departments agreeing = higher aggregate confidence
- Historical accuracy weighting: Departments with better recent track records have slightly higher weights
- Volatility adjustment: Confidence is adjusted downward during high-volatility regimes
What the Scores Mean in Practice
These ranges aren't arbitrary — they're derived from historical performance data. You can verify these win rates on our AI Performance page, which tracks real-time results across all confidence levels:
- 90%+ confidence: Very high conviction. All 6 departments strongly agree. Historical win rate for signals above 90%: 81%.
- 80-89% confidence: Strong conviction. 5-6 departments agree. Historical win rate: 73%.
- 70-79% confidence: Moderate conviction. 4 departments agree. Historical win rate: 67%.
- Below 70%: Weak conviction. The system typically does not execute trades below this threshold.